An applied research project based on a Preprints.io publication

Lazy TRADING

Quality of Life Can't be Traded

Lazy Bull doesn't want to deal with memecoins, sandwich attacks and rugpulls. But he still wants to beat the market (and most memecoin traders). He only trades major cryptos (BTC, ETH, MATIC) and stablecoins.


API: lazy.trading/{BTC,ETH,MATIC}

Keeping it Simple

Crypto trades sideways most of the time. Lazy Bull uses an automated range trading strategy based on rigorous research to answer a simple question every day: Should he be holding his capital in the blockchain's native currency (BTC, ETH, MATIC) or stablecoins (USDT/USDC)?


Read our FAQ for more technical details, and submit your email or follow our socials to be notified of new recommendations in real-time.




Current Recommendation Hold
30% PNL over the last 30 days
Breakdown of last month's PNL

Based on illustrative starting capital of $10,000

Action Date Amount BTC Amount USDT Price per BTC
Feb 15, 2021td>
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Frequently Asked Questions

Back in 2021, we made the surprising observation that Bitcoin price is not really volatile. More precisely, it is a high-variance but low-entropy time-series, or to put it more poetically, it varies widely but not widely. Moreover, even the variance of the price is mainly an intra-day phenomenon that is largely attenuated in daily or weekly observations. The preprint of our demonstration is publicly available on Preprints.io and a peer-reviewed version was published by Taylor & Francis.


Our observations were confirmed by quantitative finance experts (something we're not).

Article Image

(Note that the above email of encouragement regarding the underlying research is not an endorsement of the present software by Dr. Hagan or XBTO.)


We subsequently decided to build a trading bot based on these observations, for our own usage. It has returned more than 150% on average, annually. Lazy Trading productizes this trading bot and allows for public experimentation and accountability. The development of this software was largely automated. As part of the development of Preprints.io, we aim at scaling this experiment and offering authors way to quickly implement their preprints as software through a combination of AI and bounties to human developers.


Lazy Bull uses a range trading strategy where if the price of the cryptocurrency goes above a certain threshold, we sell for stablecoins and if it goes below another threshold, we buy with stablecoins. The thresholds are dynamically updated daily, based on a calculation of the entropy of the price over the last 30 days, prices that are visited frequently in each direction. Moreover, we take some psychological anchor prices (such as $1 for MATIC) into consideration.

No. The author is a computer scientist with no formal training in finance. No one should use Lazy Bull's advice to make real mainnet investments. However, we encourage users to keep track of the recommendations and their potential accuracy and provide us with feedback through our social channels.